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TL;DR
European efforts to regulate AI are advanced but lag behind in AI development itself. This gap poses risks for national security amid hybrid threats, which increasingly rely on advanced AI systems.
European AI regulation is advancing rapidly, exemplified by the AI Act, but the continent’s AI development remains significantly behind the US and China, creating a capability gap that impacts national security against hybrid threats.
On Tuesday, a drone carrying explosives was spotted near Leipzig/Halle airport, a key military and logistics hub linked to Ukraine and NATO, prompting a counterterrorism investigation by German authorities. The incident illustrates the rising threat of hybrid warfare, which involves sabotage, cyber intrusion, and disinformation, often executed at machine speed.
While European regulators have implemented the most comprehensive AI rules globally, European AI labs lag behind their US and Chinese counterparts in frontier capabilities. Europe’s AI models, like Mistral, are roughly at 30 on a scale where the US and China operate at 55 or higher, indicating a widening technological gap.
Experts emphasize that regulation alone cannot prevent hybrid threats; possession and development of advanced AI are critical. The current focus on regulation risks leaving Europe vulnerable, as offensive and defensive cyber and AI systems increasingly determine the outcome of such conflicts.
An explosive drone on a military cargo hub’s runway. A “professional hybrid threat,” said the interior minister — “a new level of danger.” It’s a moment to say something uncomfortable about how Europe is meeting the era it has entered.
▲ Opinion · strategic argument is the author’s ownEurope’s reflex to a new technology is to regulate it — and it’s genuinely good at it. The AI Act is the most comprehensive AI law on Earth. The discomfort is what sits underneath.
The sloppy version of this argument is wrong, and I won’t make it. The real connection runs one level deeper — through the word “hybrid.”
The rebuttal: just use American AI. For many things, today, Europe can. But defense is the specific case where you can’t.
The strongest version of the other side, because parts of it are right and it deserves to be heard.
- Regulation and capability aren’t zero-sum — Europe is investing (InvestAI, gigawatt data centers)
- Drone defense is mostly physical security and intelligence, not frontier LLMs — I overweight my own field
- Sovereign defense AI may need a smaller controllable model, not a leaderboard chase
- Setting global norms has real value, capability or not
Only capability does that — and it’s the thing we’ve been legislating around instead of building.
Implications of Europe’s AI Development Lag on Security
The disparity in AI capabilities means Europe may struggle to defend itself effectively against sophisticated hybrid attacks, which rely on AI-driven tools for rapid detection, response, and sabotage. Without sovereign AI, Europe risks dependency on foreign systems that could be restricted or compromised during crises, weakening its strategic autonomy and security posture.
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Europe’s AI Regulation vs. Development Trajectory
Despite the AI Act establishing a detailed regulatory framework, Europe's AI labs have seen stagnation in frontier capability growth, with models like Mistral remaining at lower levels compared to US and Chinese counterparts. This regulatory focus has not translated into competitive AI development, widening the technological gap.
Recent hybrid threats, such as the drone incident at Leipzig/Halle, highlight the importance of possessing advanced AI for defense. The incident underscores the need for sovereign AI systems capable of rapid, autonomous response to emerging threats, which Europe currently lacks.
"We have written the world's leading rulebook for a technology we do not lead in building."
— Thorsten Meyer
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Unclear Impact of AI Lag on Future Hybrid Threats
It remains uncertain whether Europe can accelerate AI development sufficiently to close the gap before hybrid threats escalate further. The timeline for improving sovereign AI capabilities is still unclear, and the effectiveness of current regulations in deterring or mitigating such threats is unproven.
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Next Steps for European AI Sovereignty and Security
European policymakers and defense agencies are likely to prioritize developing sovereign frontier AI capabilities, including establishing trusted AI centers like the Joint Centre for Countering Hybrid Threats. Monitoring developments in AI research and international cooperation will be critical to closing the capability gap and ensuring security against hybrid attacks.
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Key Questions
Why does Europe's focus on AI regulation matter for security?
Because regulation alone does not ensure the development of advanced AI capabilities necessary for effective defense against hybrid threats, which increasingly rely on AI-driven tools for rapid response and sabotage.
What is the main risk of Europe's lag in AI development?
Europe risks being dependent on foreign AI systems for defense, which could be restricted or compromised during crises, weakening its strategic autonomy and security.
How do hybrid threats exploit AI technology?
Hybrid threats use AI for cyber intrusion, infrastructure probing, disinformation campaigns, and autonomous attack tools, operating at machine speed to overwhelm human defenses.
Can Europe's current AI regulations prevent hybrid attacks?
No; regulations do not automatically enhance AI capabilities needed for defense. Possession and development of frontier AI are essential for effective protection.
What are the next steps for Europe to improve its security?
Develop sovereign frontier AI, establish trusted defense AI systems, and invest in autonomous threat detection and response capabilities to close the capability gap.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
