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Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456 as a weekly forum for readers, alongside updates on local meetups, a Boston-area election guide and a survey about AI safety grantmaking. The post also highlights a real-money AI prediction market and a proposed Community Notes-style service; details and claims about those projects come from the post and its named contributors.
Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, its weekly forum for reader questions and discussion, with updates on local meetups, a Boston-area election guide and a survey intended to inform work on AI grantmaking. The post also points readers to a new real-money prediction market focused on AI and a proposed online notes system, though it supplies limited details about how either service will operate.
The post describes the thread as a place where readers can discuss any topic or ask informal questions. It also points to the publication’s unofficial subreddit, Discord, bulletin board and in-person meetups. The author says that some Astral Codex Ten material is free and some is subscriber-only.
Community notices include changes to meetups in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia. The Boston ACX meetup group has completed a Greater Boston general-election voting guide, according to the post. The author says additional guides may follow and that work on a Bay Area guide is still being considered.
The author is seeking responses from people familiar with AI and grantmaking for a survey that asks them to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. A second, optional survey asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first. The post says this comparison is meant to help distinguish differences in worldview from random variation in how people assign weights.
Other announcements include MNX, a real-money prediction market on AI that the post says was launched by Manifold Markets co-founder and grantee Stephen Grugett. The post describes markets involving AI company stock futures, company revenue and Epoch Capabilities Index targets. It also promotes Common Notes, a project from Goodheart Labs that the post describes as a Community Notes-style system intended to work across websites through AI-generated notes, user contributions and voting, with a browser extension.
How the Thread Connects Readers and Projects
The post brings several kinds of activity to one audience: local gatherings, election information, research input and technology projects related to AI. For readers, the immediate value is practical: they can find meetup changes, consult the Boston group’s voting guide or take part in the grantmaking survey.
The survey could provide input to the author’s continuing effort to model parts of AI grantmaking, which the post says might eventually be automated. That is a stated research aim, not evidence that the model is complete or that grant decisions are already being automated. The proposed prediction market and Common Notes project also reflect attempts to build services around AI-related forecasting and online information, but the thread does not report performance results or independent evaluations.
Because these items appear in a community open thread rather than a detailed project report, readers should treat descriptions of the new services as announcements. The post gives a useful overview and links, but not the terms, methodology or evidence needed to judge their broader effects.
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A Weekly Forum With Community Notices
Open Thread 456 is presented as the weekly visible open thread for Astral Codex Ten. Its main purpose is open-ended reader discussion; the numbered notices add updates that would otherwise be separate from the forum’s central invitation to post questions and comments.
The election-related information is time-sensitive. The post says San Francisco mail-in ballot registration was due by the end of that Monday and identifies Scott Wiener for Congress as the author’s main San Francisco endorsement. It also says more Bay Area information might be forthcoming. The source does not state the year for the Monday deadline or the scheduled Saturday meetup, so those dates cannot be placed on a current calendar from the supplied material alone.
The thread’s AI-related items build on ongoing efforts rather than a single reported research finding. The author refers to previous work on modeling grantmaking and presents the survey as a request for further data. Separately, the post describes MNX and Common Notes as projects readers can explore; it does not provide a launch date, detailed methodology or independent assessment for either.
“This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.”
— Astral Codex Ten author, in the Open Thread 456 post
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Dates, Methods and Project Details
The supplied post does not give a publication year, making its references to Monday’s registration deadline and the October 24 meetup difficult to interpret as current or past. Readers should check the linked pages or local organizers for updated schedules and election deadlines.
The thread does not describe the AI grantmaking model’s design, how survey responses will be analyzed or whether the results will influence actual grant decisions. It also offers no independent evidence about MNX’s market rules, available contracts or operation, and no details on Common Notes’ safeguards, moderation standards or evaluation. The description of the Anthropic API’s value and the prices listed on Polymarket and MNX is presented as an observation in the post, without supporting data or an explanation of what the figures measure.
The post’s announcements establish what the author and project descriptions say; they do not establish that the projects have achieved their stated aims or that any market prices predict future outcomes accurately.
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Surveys, Meetups and Linked Projects
Readers interested in the grantmaking work can complete the primary survey and, if they have additional time, the alternate survey that asks them to predict the author’s responses. The post says those responses will help separate differences in judgments from random variation; it does not specify a closing date or a planned publication of results.
People seeking local events or election guidance should follow the linked meetup information and check for later updates, particularly for the Bay Area, where the author says a guide may still be in progress. The post gives an early notice for a San Francisco meetup scheduled for Saturday, October 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St., but its year is unspecified.
MNX and Common Notes are presented as projects readers can visit, including a browser extension for Common Notes. The thread does not set out further milestones, so any next developments will depend on announcements from their operators.
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Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is Astral Codex Ten’s weekly open discussion thread, where readers are invited to post questions or talk about any subject. This edition also includes community and project notices.
What is the AI grantmaking survey about?
The survey asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An optional alternate version asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the main survey.
What election information does the post provide?
It says the Boston ACX meetup group completed a Greater Boston general-election voting guide. The author also says a Bay Area guide is under consideration and names Scott Wiener for Congress as the main San Francisco endorsement. The post’s year is not specified.
What are MNX and Common Notes?
The post describes MNX as a real-money prediction market focused on AI-related contracts. It describes Common Notes as a Goodheart Labs project combining AI-written notes, user contributions and voting, with a browser extension intended to display notes across websites.
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